A year on, Russia's war on Ukraine threatens to redraw the map of world politics—and 2023 will be crucial
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Loading... - Yuri Zharkov
- 22 Feb 2023
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Wars are world-shaping. Beyond their immediate human and physical tolls, wars alter the fates of societies and states; of clans, cultures and leaders.
They establish new lines of access to resources and influence, determining who has what—and who doesn't. They set precedents for how future wars are justified and, in the case of attempted conquest, wars can ultimately redraw the map of world politics.
One year after its unprovoked invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia's war against Ukraine encompasses all these dangers.
With Ukraine waging an existential battle for its very survival, and Russia seemingly happy to settle for destroying Ukraine if it fails to conquer it, neither side has any incentive to stop fighting.
Absent the complete collapse of either the Ukrainian or Russian armed forces, the grim reality is that the war will likely drag on throughout 2023—and potentially beyond it.
2023 will be crucial
But what happens in Ukraine during 2023 will be crucial. For a start, it will reveal whether victory for either side is possible, or whether a "frozen" conflict is more likely.
It will test the resolve of all the main protagonists and their supporters:
Ukraine's ability to repel Russian onslaughts and recapture territory
the extent to which Vladimir Putin can command domestic obedience
and even of China's intentions, as it mulls supplying Moscow with weapons.
How the war plays out in 2023 will also reveal how credible the West's determination to stand up to bullies really is. Will it move further towards supporting Kyiv by all means necessary, revert to drip-feeding its assistance, or give in to apathy and war fatigue?
At present, Ukraine continues to have the upper hand, even if Russia's armed forces have lately wrested back some momentum. But in the coming months, Kyiv will face two key challenges.
First it will need to absorb Russian attacks while conducting its own offensive operations, which will require Western heavy armor, longer-range strike capabilities, and possibly air power.
Second, Ukraine will require continued international aid and assistance to ensure its social order doesn't break down as a result of economic collapse, and to be able to mitigate further damage to its critical infrastructure.
Putin's army—and his authority—in the spotlight
Conversely, for Russia to turn the tide it will have to dramatically reverse the abysmal performance of its armed forces. The recent spectacular failure of the Russian assault on Vuhledar in Ukraine's south east, seen by many as the prelude to a Spring offensive, doesn't bode well.
With an estimated 80% of Russia's entire ground forces now engaged in the conflict, plus tens of thousands of newly mobilized conscripts arriving at the front, there's mounting pressure on those at the very top of Russia's military leadership to achieve rapid results.
Failing to achieve that will ultimately rebound on Putin. To maintain social order he has become increasingly repressive, banning books, engaging in shadow conscription campaigns, and imprisoning many of those who speak out against the war.
And while the bitter infighting between the armed forces and paramilitary organization the Wagner Group seems to have been settled for the moment, the fact that it was conducted so publicly suggests Putin no longer enjoys the same iron control amongst Russia's leaders that he once did. Read More…
