Cryptoverse: Is the end of the bitcoin winter nigh?
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Loading... - Petra Vogel
- 24 May 2022
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The crypto winter is into its ninth week and bitcoin can't shake the chills.
From technicals to turnover, market indicators are flashing red or amber for the biggest cryptocurrency, which has lost a third of its value in just two months.
So what now?
Bitcoin's limited history isn't much of a guide on crypto winters, which we're defining as prolonged bearishness for a month or more.
There have been five since 2017 and three since 2021. Last year's two crashes lasted 14 and 10 weeks and caused bitcoin to lose 45% to 47%. If they were typical, bitcoin's latest drop - 36% shed in eight weeks - has road left to run.
"Bitcoin is just not attractive to retail investors right now. Nobody really sees that potential for bitcoin to give out 10 times (return)," said Joseph Edwards, head of financial strategy at fund management firm Solrise Finance.
Indeed the macro background is far from supportive for an asset class now firmly seen as volatile, risky - plus vulnerable in the face of inflation. As worries over rising global rates and geopolitics bring U.S. stocks close to confirming a bear market, cryptocurrencies aren't on anyone's shopping list.
Yet even in the icy wilderness, there are some signs that the crypto king is plotting its comeback.
Bitcoin is drawing strength from the rest of the crypto market, for example, its relative stature providing some comfort for investors fleeing altcoins such as stablecoins deemed ultra-risky after the collapse of TerraUSD in early May.
Bitcoin dominance, a measure of the ratio between its market cap to the rest of cryptocurrency markets, has jumped to a seven-month high of over 44% even as its price has decreased.
"Institutional investors particularly are fleeing to safety, to a certain extent, to bitcoin, which has the most institutional adoption," said Marcus Sotiriou, analyst at UK-based asset broker GlobalBlock.
Last week, bitcoin futures saw their largest net long position since the contract was launched in 2018, CFTC data showed, indicating traders are increasing positioning for a rise in the price of the cryptocurrency. Read More...
