Kamala Harris Takes 4-Point Lead Over Donald Trump in New Polling Average
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Loading... - Rurik Popov
- 27 Aug 2024
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In a significant development in the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a 4-point lead over Donald Trump in the latest polling average, according to FiveThirtyEight. The new numbers come after Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s withdrawal from the presidential race, which has had a significant impact on the polling landscape.
According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin website, Harris now leads Trump 48.8% to 44.8% nationally. In key swing states, Harris is also ahead, with leads in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Trump leads in Georgia, the race remains close in North Carolina, and Harris has a narrow lead in Nevada.
If the election were to mirror the current polling data, Harris would win the Electoral College and the presidency, even if Trump were to prevail in Nevada and North Carolina. This scenario underscores the importance of Harris's leads in key swing states.
The polling landscape has changed dramatically since President Joe Biden's historic decision to withdraw from the race on July 21 and support Harris. Trump had been leading in swing states and traditionally Democratic-leaning states, but Harris has surged in the polls since becoming the Democratic nominee.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s withdrawal from the race has had a significant impact on the polling data. According to Scott Jennings, a former adviser, Kennedy Jr.'s reputation as a conservative conspiracy theorist could "cost" Trump votes in November.
The new polling average suggests that Harris has momentum on her side, and her leads in key swing states could be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. Trump's campaign will need to regroup and find a way to close the gap if they hope to win in November.
