Markets Jump to Predict 64% Chance of US Bitcoin Reserve in 2025
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Loading... - Sadiki Omar
- 23 Jan 2025
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As President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term, the crypto community is closely monitoring his promises regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Polymarket traders are actively predicting the likelihood of various outcomes related to Trump's administration, particularly in the realm of crypto policy and pardons.
Polymarket data indicates a strong expectation for pardons related to the January 6 Capitol riot and for Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road marketplace. Traders assign a staggering 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants within Trump's first 100 days, with a 92% likelihood that some pardons will be issued on Day 1. Ulbricht's chances of receiving clemency are estimated at 83% in the same timeframe.
In addition to pardons, traders are also speculating on the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with a 64% probability that this initiative could be announced on Day 1. However, the likelihood of an executive order addressing digital assets, which would tackle issues like de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at a lower 36%. Overall, the sentiment around crypto policies is cautious, with over $2 million traded on these predictions.
Other notable predictions include a 92% chance that TikTok will remain operational despite previous legislation aimed at its sale or ban, and a 75% likelihood that the JFK assassination files will be declassified by April 29. Conversely, the probability of ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days is assessed at just 34%, while new tariffs on Mexico or Canada are given a 31% chance.
While some of these actions, such as pardons and executive orders, can be implemented quickly, others, particularly those involving foreign policy or territorial acquisitions, typically require extensive negotiations. The Polymarket data reflects a more optimistic outlook for a pro-crypto administration compared to previous administrations, although major reforms may not materialize within the first 100 days.
As Trump's presidency unfolds, the fluid nature of Polymarket data allows for rapid adjustments based on official statements or early actions. The first week of a new term often sees a flurry of executive activity, and any early signals could significantly influence market predictions. This dynamic environment provides a unique opportunity for those interested in U.S. politics and policy changes, as Polymarket serves as a real-time barometer for potential developments in the Trump administration's approach to cryptocurrency and other key issues.
