More inflation in the pipeline for Argentina: estimates of 65,1% for 2022
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Loading... - Carlos Aguirre
- 11 May 2022
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The weekly survey of market expectations, REM, from the Central Bank anticipates a worsening of the inflation situation in Argentina, which once the April index is officially made public this week could represent 65% for the twelve months of 2022.
Market analysts anticipate a 65,1% CPI, for 2022, 5,9 points higher than the previous survey. In effect those who participated in the March REM forecasted a March CPI of 5,5%, but it proved to be higher, 6,7%. And for April estimates REM anticipate 5,6%, and 65,1% in twelve months.
REM also includes questions on inflation 2023 estimates, and the average for the twelve months was 50,5% and 43,7% in 2024
As to the US Dollar/Peso exchange rate, REM analysts expect 155 Pesos for a greenback by next December, equivalent to a 52,1% increase for the whole year. Likewise 226 Pesos by the end of 2023. This is the official rate since the black or blue market operates with a gap over the official rate that ranges from 75% to 100%.
As to the growth of the Argentine economy, the REM survey estimate GDP will expand 3,5% this year (0,3 percentage points higher than the previous survey)
As to the quarterly evolution of the economy, GDP in the first quarter reached 1,2%, which was 0,6 percentage points higher than the previous survey. The second quarter GDP fell to a 0,4 percentage points expansion, a contraction of 0,8 pp. While estimates for the third quarter estimate a contraction of 0,5 pp. Read More...
