An assessment of President Hichilema's first year in Zambia
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Loading... - Joseph Medjo
- 30 Sep 2022
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Nothing demonstrates Zambia’s political polarisation quite as much as the responses to the basic question: how much has President Hakainde Hichilema accomplished in his first year in office? Where his supporters see total economic transformation and democratic renewal since his inauguration a year ago today, his critics see sustained decline and an abject failure of leadership.
Below, I attempt to offer a more balanced assessment of both the positive indicators and persistent challenges of Hichilema’s last year, focusing on six areas that featured prominently in his campaign.
Economic recovery
Zambia’s economy faced severe challenges under former president Edgar Lungu. Alongside the high cost of living, the country faced a staggering debt crisis, a declining currency, and high inflation. In confronting this situation, Hichilema’s first year has seen five major – albeit mixed – achievements.
First, certain economic indicators have stabilised. Inflation has reduced from an average 20% in 2021 to 9% today, while the Kwacha has improved against major currencies. This has provided a reprieve for Zambians, but many fear it is only temporary. That is because these changes are largely the result of external creditors pausing debt repayments pending a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Second, the government has recruited about 40,000 workers in health and education. This has created promised jobs and helped fulfil the campaign pledge of free public education. The problem is that this job creation has relied on expanding the public sector and will be difficult to repeat. In fact, this year’s increase to the public sector wage bill, which already consumes at least 60% of government expenditure, may constrain the government’s finances in the future and lead to tensions with trade unions if the cost of living continues to rise.
Third, Hichilema has increased the Constituency Development Fund from K1.6 million ($90,000) to K25.7 million ($1.4 million). This is a significant step towards decentralisation, local participation, and democratisation, as it gives each constituency autonomy to decide how to spend its allocation. However, this expansion appears hurried and insufficiently planned. For instance, the present local government system is based on districts (of which there are 116) and not on constituencies (of which there are 156). There is no administrative infrastructure at the constituency level to support the facility. And there are not yet sufficient regulations on budgeting and disbursement of a Fund allocation. More worryingly, project proposals still need to receive approval from the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development, perhaps indicating central government’s reluctance to wholly devolve power. Read More...
