Inflation level highest since 1997
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Loading... - Mia Graham
- 11 Jul 2022
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As calculated by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the consumer price index (CPI), Poland's main measure of inflation, rose 15.6% year-on-year in June, following a 13.9% increase in May.
Compared to May, the CPI rose by 1.5%. Not counting February, when the index fell under the influence of the so-called "anti-inflation shield," this is its smallest increase this year. In May, prices rose by 1.7%, in April by 2%, and in March by as much as 3.3%. On the other hand, considering only June, this year's CPI jump was the highest since 1997.
Since the beginning of the year, the level of consumer prices in Poland has risen by more than 10%. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is tasked with keeping inflation at 2.5% annually, tolerating deviations of 1 percentage point in either direction.
The flywheel of inflation in recent months, however, is mainly forces over which the NBP has virtually no influence. These are primarily the rise in prices of energy and agricultural commodities as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Of the major categories of goods and services, fuels for private transportation vehicles rose the fastest in June. Their prices rose 46.7% year-on-year, following an increase of 45.4% in May. Such a rapid increase in gas station prices Poles have not experienced this century. The prices of energy carriers (gas, electricity and fuel) also rose the strongest this century, by 35.3% year-on-year.
The price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, the commodities that account for the largest share of the statistical household's expenses, also accelerated again in June. They rose 14.1% year-on-year in June, following a 13.5% year-on-year increase in May and 12.7% in April. Compared to May, however, prices of goods in this category rose only 0.7%, after increasing 1.3% the month before and as much as 4.4% in April.
Based on GUS data, economists estimate that so-called core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and thus better reflects inflationary pressures of domestic origin, was between 9.2% and 9.5% year-on-year in June, after 8.5% in May. If the lower of these estimates turned out to be accurate (official data will be published by the National Bank of Poland in the middle of the month), the month-on-month increase in core inflation would be smaller than last time. Read More…
