Spain's Regional Elections: Anticipated Developments in the Valencia Region
The electoral race for the regional assembly of Valencia is intensifying, bringing forth crucial implications for the local community. In this comprehensive overview, we will delve into essential information ranging from the primary candidates to the projected victor according to various polls.
When will the elections take place? On Sunday, May 28th, Spain will hold both municipal (local) and regional elections. These elections hold significant importance for local communities due to the decentralized nature of Spanish politics. Regional governments wield substantial influence over governance, making these elections a barometer for the broader political climate across the nation. This significance is particularly pronounced in 2023, with a general election slated for later in the year.
However, it should be noted that not every region in Spain will hold regional elections in May. Galicia and the Basque Country conducted their elections in August 2020, while Catalonia followed suit a year later on February 14th, 2021. Furthermore, Castilla y León and Andalusia had consequential regional elections in 2022, resulting in the absence of elections in those regions this year. Nevertheless, the Valencia region will host a regional election, and this popular Mediterranean coastal region is considered a political bellwether for national politics.
What is at stake?
The elections will determine the councillors for Les Corts, Valencia's regional assembly, as well as the President of the Generalitat Valenciana (Valencian government). Voters in Valencia's three provinces—Valencia, Castellón, and Alicante—will cast their votes. In the previous elections held in 2019, the center-left Socialists (PSVP, the regional branch of PSOE known as Partit Socialista del País Valencià) secured 23.9 percent of the vote, garnering 27 seats. The center-right Partido Popular (PP) achieved 18.9 percent, securing 19 seats. Centrist party Ciudadanos obtained 18 seats with 17.5 percent of the vote, but its influence has diminished significantly since then. Coalició Compromís, a left-wing coalition, captured 16.4 percent of the vote, equating to 17 seats, while the far-right Vox secured 10 seats with 10.4 percent of the vote. Subsequently, Valencia has been governed by a broad left-wing coalition led by PSVP with the support of Compromís and UP (Podemos).
Who is eligible to vote?
In regional elections in Spain, only foreigners with Spanish nationality registered in the electoral census are eligible to vote. However, certain non-EU foreigners, including Britons and Americans, can participate in municipal elections if they have completed the registration process. They can also run as candidates in municipal elections. Currently, approximately 40 British town and city councillors have been elected in Spain, primarily in the Valencia region and Andalusia—two regions with the highest concentration of British residents.
Who are the prominent candidates?
A total of 19 parties are participating in the regional elections, encompassing a wide political spectrum. Among the front-runners, Ximo Puig, the incumbent regional President from PSVP, seeks to obtain a "sufficient majority to continue the progressive project." However, recent reports suggest that Puig has exhibited caution regarding his prospects in the Valencian press. Puig has been an influential figure on the national political stage, offering support to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez while criticizing regions governed by the rival PP. Joan Baldoví represents the Compromís party and serves as a representative for Valencia in Spain's Congress of Deputies. Baldoví gained attention for an act of protest in Congress when he removed his shirt and tie, revealing an anti banker t-shirt. Héctor Illueca, the candidate from Podemos, currently holds the position of Deputy Vice President of the Generalitat and has a background as a labor inspector. Carlos Mazón represents the center-right wing as the candidate for the PP. Mazón, who is a trained lawyer, emphasizes the need for "political and social change" and aims to secure a "sufficient majority" for effective governance, a goal that may require a coalition with the far-right Vox party.
The candidate for Vox is Carlos Flores Juberías, a Law Professor at the University of Valencia. It's worth noting that Juberías faced legal consequences in 2002, receiving a one-year prison sentence for harassing his ex-wife, as reported by El País. However, none of the candidates have managed to inspire much confidence among the Valencian electorate. A poll conducted by Sigmados in April indicated that none of the potential regional Presidents scored above a 5/10 rating. The leading candidates' scores were separated by only tenths of a percentage point, with Ximo Puig receiving a 4.9 rating, Carlos Mazón a 4.8, and Joan Baldoví a 4.7.
What do the polls indicate? The polls reveal a significant level of political indifference, with approximately 65 percent of voters in the region believing that a change in government is necessary. While 43.1 percent of Valencians consider the management of the community to be 'good or very good,' 35.7 percent perceive it as "bad or very bad." As for the distribution of seats in Les Corts, most polling firms suggest that the right-wing parties will regain control of the Generalitat, with the PP emerging as the largest party in the region. However, it remains uncertain whether they will secure a governable majority. The key question is whether they will need to form a coalition with Vox, as was the case in Castile y Leon.
According to Sigmados, the projections indicate that the two right-wing parties are expected to secure between 49 and 51 seats combined, surpassing the collective seat count of the three main left-wing parties. The best-case scenario for the left-wing coalition is projected to yield 50 seats, while the worst-case scenario estimates 47 seats. In terms of the vote percentage, the PP is forecasted to obtain 47.2 percent, while the left-wing coalition is expected to secure 46.7 percent.
The polls also indicate a gradual decline in support for left-wing parties, particularly among PSVP voters. Notably, Podemos and, to a lesser extent, Compromís, have experienced a decrease in voter support compared to the results of the 2019 elections. A crucial factor is that Mazón's PP appears poised to acquire all 18 seats previously held by Ciudadanos in 2019. Ciudadanos is currently in dire straits politically, with most polls suggesting that the party may not even reach the 5 percent threshold required for representation in Les Corts.
Based on these projections, the PP is expected to experience the most significant improvement compared to the 2019 elections, followed by Vox, which is anticipated to gain five seats. Although an outright majority seems unlikely for the PP, seat projections suggest that a coalition with Vox would provide a governable majority in Les Corts.
