What Happens Next After Ireland's General Election?
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Loading... - Bianca Palumbo
- 04 Dec 2024
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Following the counting of votes and the calculation of results, the next steps in forming a government in Ireland will involve negotiating common goals and establishing a coalition. While the structure of the next Irish government is expected to closely resemble the previous one, it will take several weeks for the involved parties to finalize a coalition agreement, culminating in the appointment of ministers.
Coalition Talks and Parliamentary Arithmetic
The framework for coalition discussions will be heavily influenced by parliamentary arithmetic. With Fianna Fáil emerging as the largest party, its leader, Micheál Martin, is poised to become taoiseach (Irish prime minister) for a second term. The current taoiseach, Simon Harris of Fine Gael, will transition out of the role as part of the coalition agreement established in 2020, which included a rotation of the taoiseach position.
Martin previously held the position before stepping back to become foreign minister and tánaiste (deputy prime minister). Following his tenure, Leo Varadkar of Fine Gael took over but resigned earlier in 2024, leading to Harris's appointment. It is anticipated that the coalition will again agree to alternate the taoiseach position throughout the five-year term, although Fianna Fáil may expect a greater share of cabinet positions due to its stronger seat count this election.
Seat Distribution and Coalition Possibilities
In the recent election, Fianna Fáil secured 48 seats, Sinn Féin came in second with 39, and Fine Gael followed closely with 38 seats. The threshold for an overall majority in the Dáil Éireann (the lower house of parliament) is 88 seats. With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael holding a combined total of 86 seats, they will need to seek a coalition partner to form a stable government.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out a coalition with Sinn Féin, the largest opposition party. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has expressed interest in forming a left-wing alliance, but the combined strength of such a coalition would fall short of the necessary numbers to govern.
The Labour Party and the Social Democrats have made notable gains in the election, but both parties are cautious about becoming junior partners in a predominantly centre-right coalition, especially after the experience of the last coalition, which saw the centre-left party suffer significant losses. The Green Party also faced setbacks, losing 11 seats, leaving its leader, Roderic O’Gorman, as the sole survivor.
If left-leaning parties opt for opposition, Martin and Harris may turn to independent politicians for support, as non-party politicians have historically played a significant role in Irish governance. Internal meetings among the parties are expected to take place soon to discuss their positions ahead of coalition negotiations. Martin has already highlighted three key policy areas for potential collaboration: enterprise, EU relations, and home ownership.
Timeline for the Dáil's Return
The Dáil is scheduled to reconvene for the first time after the election on December 18. However, it is unlikely that a coalition agreement will be reached by that date. The process of forming a government will take time, as parties will need to compare manifestos, select ministries, and make necessary compromises to create a comprehensive program for government that outlines legislative strategies and targets through to 2029.
In the interim, pre-election ministers will continue to serve in a caretaker capacity until the Dáil passes a motion to approve a new taoiseach, after which the new cabinet will be announced. Barring any unforeseen complications, this transition is expected to occur in early 2025.
