Czech Republic Faces An Uncertain Political Future
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Loading... - Debora Costa
- 17 Dec 2024
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As the Czech Republic approaches the critical year of 2025, the political landscape appears increasingly uncertain following underwhelming provincial and senatorial elections in the fall of 2024. The country is grappling with a divided electorate, an unpopular and shrinking coalition government, and a resurgent populist opposition, all set against a backdrop of a shifting European geopolitical landscape influenced by the reelection of Donald Trump in the United States.
Regional and Senatorial Polls: Did Anybody Win?
In the September 2024 elections, leadership positions in all thirteen regions (Kraj) and twenty-seven seats in the upper house of parliament were contested. While the main opposition party, ANO (Akce nespokojených občanů, or Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, appeared to secure a significant victory by winning control of ten regions, the overall voter turnout was alarmingly low at just 32.91%. This marked the worst participation rate in a Czech regional election since 2004, compared to nearly 66% in the last general parliamentary elections in 2021.
In the Senate elections, ANO's performance was mixed. Although the party secured eight out of twenty-seven contested seats—its best showing in the upper house—it still fell short of a majority, with the ruling SPOLU coalition taking fifteen seats. The final composition of the Senate left the governing coalition with a substantial majority of sixty-five seats, while ANO controlled only twelve. The low turnout in both elections reflects a growing apathy among voters, complicating the narrative of a populist wave.
Shrinking Coalition
The governing coalition, which consists of five parties, faced further challenges following the withdrawal of the Pirates party (Pirátská strana) after a disappointing electoral performance. The internal conflict was exacerbated by the failure to implement a promised digitized system for issuing building permits, leading to the dismissal of Deputy Prime Minister Ivan Bartoš. This political fallout reduced the coalition's majority in parliament to 104 seats out of 200, leaving only four parties—Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), TOP-09, and the centrist STAN movement—to counter the growing influence of ANO.
Changing Security Landscape
The political drama unfolds against a backdrop of a precarious European security situation, particularly in light of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The Czech Republic, under the SPOLU coalition, has been a staunch supporter of EU and NATO efforts to supply arms to Ukraine. However, this position has strained relations with Visegrad Four (V4) member states Hungary and Slovakia, which have called for a negotiated settlement to the conflict. The growing war fatigue among the electorate may embolden peace parties, presenting a significant challenge to the SPOLU coalition in the upcoming elections.
Should Trump advocate for a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict, the SPOLU coalition could lose one of its key foreign policy successes, potentially benefiting ANO and its right-wing allies, such as the Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD). Polling in October 2024 indicated that an ANO/SPD coalition could control 111 of the 200 parliamentary seats, a significant increase over the current SPOLU government.
Bleak Prospects for Governing Coalition
As the election year approaches, public sentiment in the Czech Republic appears to be shifting. A summer 2024 poll revealed that less than half of respondents felt that current conditions were better than before the 1989 revolution, with many expressing nostalgia for the past. This growing discontent has created an opening for populist parties on both the left (ANO) and right (SPD) to capitalize on the electorate's frustrations.
The political climate has become increasingly contentious, with Babiš publicly questioning Prime Minister Fiala's mental health in parliament, reflecting the deepening divisions within the political landscape. As the SPOLU coalition grapples with internal strife and declining public support, the likelihood of a change in government by late 2025 appears increasingly plausible.
The Visegrád One?
The potential return of populist rule in Prague would align the Czech Republic with Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have embraced illiberal democracy. This shift would reduce the formerly pro-Western Visegrád Four to a minority of one, with Poland remaining the last bastion of a more traditional Western alignment. The implications of such a political realignment for the region, particularly in the context of relations with both Moscow and Brussels, are difficult to predict but could signal a significant shift in Central European geopolitics.
As the Czech Republic stands on the precipice of a potential political transformation, the echoes of its past resonate, raising questions about the future direction of the country and its place within the broader European landscape.
