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Decline in Mathematics Enrollment for Matriculation Exam Raises Concerns

At first glance, the results of the latest matriculation exams seem promising, with an increase in average grades and a decrease in municipalities with poor average scores. However, a significant concern arises from the constant decline in the number of students opting for the mathematics exam, which now comprises less than 3% of all high school graduates. This decline is alarming given the increasing importance of mathematical skills in the modern job market.

Methodology and Findings

Since the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) does not publish average marks of matriculation exams at the municipality level, the data presented here are based on GPI calculations using school-level data. The average grade for each municipality is calculated as the average of the schools within it, weighted by the number of students who took the exam.

In the spring session of 2024, 46,900 students appeared for the "Bulgarian Language and Literature" (BEL) exam, continuing the trend of increased high school graduates. The average grade saw a significant improvement, rising to 4.30, an increase of 37 hundredths from the previous year. This marks a return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic values when the national average was in the 4.20-4.30 range. However, it's important to note that comparisons between different years should be made cautiously due to varying exam conditions.

Municipality Performance

Chelopech municipality achieved the highest average grade for the BEL exam, with a score of 5.19, followed by several municipalities in Smolyansko. Larger urban centers also performed well, with Stolichna Municipality scoring 4.65, Veliko Tarnovo at 4.63, and Plovdiv at 4.60.

Significant improvement was observed in low grades; the number of municipalities with below-average scores halved from 80 last year to 37 in 2024. Notably, no municipality had a pure fail score, with the lowest being Kameno at 2.2. However, areas in North-East and North-West Bulgaria, as well as regions around Plovdiv and Stara Zagora, still show clusters of low scores. Interestingly, in municipalities with an average score of less than 3 in BEL, no students took the mathematics exam, indicating challenges in local education systems.

The English language exam remains popular, with 12,700 high school seniors taking it. The national average for this exam was 5.08, with eight municipalities achieving an average grade of "Excellent." Only 12 municipalities scored below "Good," indicating a relatively high overall level of proficiency in English.

Decline in Mathematics Exam Participation

The most concerning trend is the steep decline in mathematics exam participation. Only about 1,400 students, or 2.9% of all high school graduates, took the mathematics exam, an 18% drop from last year. This decline is particularly notable given the increase in the total number of students taking the DZI. Participation in the mathematics exam is highly concentrated in large cities with strong specialized mathematics schools, such as Sofia, Varna, and Plovdiv.

Despite the low participation, the average grades for the mathematics exam were relatively high, with a national average of 4.91. Gotse Delchev, Dolni Dabnik, and Burgas ranked first, and large cities like Burgas, Vratsa, Sofia, and Gabrovo also performed well.

Conclusion

The declining interest in mathematics among high school graduates is concerning. Many students, especially those outside elite, specialized schools, do not feel adequately prepared to take the exam. This is evident from the disparity in mathematics performance between the seventh and 12th grades—while mathematics is compulsory in the seventh grade and scores are lower, the optional status in the 12th grade leads to higher scores among the few who choose to take the exam. Addressing this issue is crucial to ensure that students are equipped with essential skills for the evolving job market.

 

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