Finland’s Local Politics Could Swing Left, Indicates Poll by YLE
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Loading... - Milan Klein
- 10 Feb 2025
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A recent poll conducted by YLE suggests that Finland's Social Democratic Party (SDP) is poised for potential success in both the upcoming county and municipal elections scheduled for April 13. The poll indicates a notable shift in voter sentiment, with the SDP projected to receive 22.9% of the vote in the county elections, reflecting an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the first-ever county elections held in 2022. In the municipal elections, the party's support is expected to rise by 4.3 percentage points to 22.0% compared to the 2021 elections.
The results suggest that the SDP is effectively channeling public discontent with the current government, according to Tuomo Turja, the research director of Taloustutkimus. He noted, “On the other hand, also the government’s politics has its supporters.” The National Coalition Party, traditionally known for its loyal voter base, garnered 20.3% support in the county election poll and 20.8% in the municipal election poll, representing declines of 1.3 and 0.6 points, respectively.
The Centre Party ranked third in both polls, receiving 18.4% in the county elections and 14.5% in the municipal elections, both showing a slight decrease of about half a point from previous elections. The Finns Party followed as the fourth most popular choice, with 10.8% in the county elections and 12.9% in the municipal elections, indicating drops of 0.3 and 1.6 points from earlier results.
In contrast to the other parties, the Left Alliance is also polling higher than in previous elections, with 10.2% support in the county elections (an increase of 2.2 points) and 9.8% in the municipal elections (up 1.9 points). The Green League received 7.7% in the county election poll and 10.2% in the municipal election poll, showing a slight increase in the former and a slight decrease in the latter.
The poll indicates that the Swedish People’s Party may face significant losses, with only 3.0% support in the county election poll (down 1.9 points) and 3.9% in the municipal election poll (down 1.1 points). The Christian Democrats are projected to see a minor decline to 4.1% in the county elections and a 0.6-point drop in the municipal elections. Movement Now is expected to fall to 0.6% in the county elections and 0.5% in the municipal elections.
Turja cautioned that significant changes could still occur before the elections as campaigns and debates gain momentum. He pointed out the similarities in the poll results, attributing them to the high number of candidates and overlapping themes in both elections. “Voters maybe aren’t able to discern too well what’s the difference in the elections,” he remarked.
The poll was conducted by Taloustutkimus, which contacted 2,224 individuals for the county election poll and 2,604 for the municipal election poll between January 13 and February 3. The responses yielded 1,496 and 1,867 replies, respectively, with a margin of error of 2.0–2.2 percentage points.
The YLE poll indicates a potential leftward shift in Finnish local politics, with the Social Democratic Party gaining ground ahead of the upcoming elections. As voter sentiment evolves and campaigns unfold, the political landscape may continue to change, making the upcoming elections a critical moment for Finland's political future.
