Netherlands vulnerable to boycott of Russian energy: Planning office
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Loading... - Chiara Accardi
- 23 Mar 2022
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A majority in the lower house of Dutch parliament is pushing for tougher sanctions against Russia, including a boycott of Russian oil. But the Netherlands is very sensitive to a cut-off of the Russian energy supply, central planning office CPB calculated.
The Russian share of Dutch gas consumption is low at 15 percent, compared to 34 percent in Europe as a whole. But a boycott of Russian energy will still hit the Netherlands harder than other Western European countries via the international trade chains, the CPB calculated in a "disaster model" for if the supply of oil and gas from Russia is halted, Financieele Dagblad reported.
"For the Netherlands, the complete or partial loss of Russian gas may not seem to have such a great effect," CPB researcher Gerdien Meijerink said to the newspaper. "But because of the large imports and exports, we suffer a lot from it. As a small, open economy, we are very dependent on production chains elsewhere in Europe."
"Suppose that suddenly only half of Russia's gas is available. That could mean that a tire factory in Slovakia, which is much more dependent on Russian gas than the Netherlands, will have to halve production. Then a Dutch car factory must also scale back. And that effect also occurs through other suppliers," Meijerink explained. "If the supply of Russian energy is completely stopped, the majority of the sectors will come to a complete standstill."
Only a limited number of industries are directly affected by the reduced supply of Russian oil and gas, "but all industries will shrink," the CPB said. The effect becomes more significant the more internationally organized an industry is. For example, if 50 percent less Russian gas comes in, the Dutch car industry would shrink by 72 percent, according to the CPB. The widespread clothing industry would also be hit hard.
The CPB did not consider higher prices, existing gas stocks, or finding alternatives for the lost energy. "It's a rough analysis, and we don't have enough data to translate it into the effect on the economy as a whole," Meijerink said to FD.
The Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament, is debating sanctions against Russia with Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Wednesday afternoon. A majority of the VVD, D66, PvdA, GroenLinks, ChristenUnie, and others argue for harsher sanctions. They want Europe to stop buying Russian oil and ban Russian ships from European ports, among other things, RTL Nieuws reports. Read More...
