New U.S. AI Guidelines Pressure Allies and Rivals to Embrace Technology
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Loading... - Emma Maclean
- 06 Nov 2024
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As artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly shapes geopolitical dynamics and future conflicts, the White House has instructed the Pentagon and other national security agencies to accelerate the adoption of this critical technology while mitigating the risk of its misuse by adversaries. The recent National Security Memorandum (NSM) on AI marks the first comprehensive guidance from the Biden administration, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to maintain its technological edge, particularly against rivals like China.
This directive is expected to have significant implications not only for U.S. national security but also for its allies and partners, many of whom are struggling to keep pace with rapid technological advancements. According to Ali Plucinski, a cyberanalyst at RANE, other nations may feel compelled to enhance their own agencies' access to AI tools due to concerns about their national security preparedness lagging behind.
The effectiveness of these guidelines may hinge on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris faces former President Donald Trump. Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that a Harris administration would likely support the NSM's objectives, while a Trump administration might take a different approach, potentially undermining the continuity of AI policies established under President Biden.
Released on October 24, the NSM outlines the Biden administration's strategy to outpace rivals in AI development and deployment. The memorandum emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced AI technologies into national security operations, particularly for tasks related to information gathering and analysis.
The NSM aims to facilitate the adoption of "frontier AI" models—cutting-edge general-purpose AI systems that differ from earlier, application-specific models. While these systems, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, promise to revolutionize defense and intelligence operations, the memorandum also sets forth guidelines to ensure their secure and responsible use.
Sam Bresnick from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology highlights that having advanced technology is not enough; agencies must also learn to use it effectively. The NSM seeks to promote responsible utilization of AI, which is expected to play a crucial role in future military conflicts by enhancing decision-making and strategy formulation.
The NSM includes a section dedicated to allies, underscoring their potential role in creating a secure AI ecosystem. This could lead to increased collaboration on joint AI initiatives, although the next U.S. administration may impose restrictions on such efforts.
However, the focus of U.S. policy primarily on the public sector may create challenges for allies. Plucinski warns that the U.S. might prioritize adversarial AI capabilities over safety, potentially leading to a rift with European partners who emphasize safety in AI development. This divergence could force allies to choose between the U.S. approach of rapid innovation and the European model that prioritizes safety, complicating global AI governance.
As a result, U.S. allies may feel heightened pressure to establish similar initiatives to enhance their security agencies' access to advanced AI tools. This challenge is compounded by the difficulty of creating a cohesive global framework for regulating military AI.
The tension between upholding democratic values and enabling national security agencies to access powerful AI capabilities will pose significant challenges for many countries. Plucinski notes that nations will need to navigate the trade-offs between security and civil liberties as they develop their AI strategies.
Countries and companies collaborating with the U.S. on AI will likely face specific requirements, including minimizing or eliminating the use of Chinese technology in national security applications. This expectation will particularly impact allies like Australia and the UK, which are part of the AUKUS partnership.
Japan, which aims to keep pace with both the U.S. and China in military AI applications, may view the NSM as a framework for integrating AI into its national security strategy. However, sustaining these efforts will require long-term commitment and resource allocation from leaders, as emphasized by Schoff.
The NSM represents a significant step in the U.S. strategy to leverage AI for national security while exerting pressure on allies and rivals to adopt similar technologies. As geopolitical tensions rise, Washington's competitors, particularly China, are likely to interpret the NSM as a catalyst for expanding their own military AI capabilities. The evolving landscape of AI in national security will require careful navigation of international partnerships, technological innovation, and ethical considerations as countries strive to balance security needs with democratic values.
